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| # IDE SECIR model | ||
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| This model is based on Integro-differential equations. The eight compartments | ||
| - Susceptible, may become exposed at any time | ||
| - Exposed, becomes infected after some time | ||
| - InfectedNoSymptoms, becomes InfectedSymptoms or Recovered after some time | ||
| - InfectedSymptoms, becomes InfectedSevere or Recovered after some time | ||
| - InfectedSevere, becomes InfectedCritical or Recovered after some time | ||
| - InfectedCritical, becomes Recovered or Dead after some time | ||
| - Recovered | ||
| - Dead | ||
| This model is based on integro-differential equations. | ||
| The eight compartments | ||
| - `Susceptible` ($S$), may become Exposed at any time | ||
| - `Exposed` ($E$), becomes InfectedNoSymptoms after some time | ||
| - `InfectedNoSymptoms` ($I_{NS}$), becomes InfectedSymptoms or Recovered after some time | ||
| - `InfectedSymptoms` ($I_{Sy}$), becomes InfectedSevere or Recovered after some time | ||
| - `InfectedSevere` ($I_{Sev}$), becomes InfectedCritical or Recovered after some time | ||
| - `InfectedCritical` ($I_{Cr}$), becomes Recovered or Dead after some time | ||
| - `Recovered` ($R$) | ||
| - `Dead` ($D$) | ||
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| are used to simulate the spread of the disease. | ||
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| Below is an overview of the model architecture and its compartments. | ||
| The variables $\sigma_{z_1}^{z_2}$ refer to a transition from a compartment $z_1$ to a compartment $z_2$. | ||
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| The simulation runs in discrete time steps using a non-standard numerical scheme. This approach is based on the paper "A non-standard numerical scheme for an age-of infection epidemic model" by Messina et al., Journal of Computational Dynamics, 2022. | ||
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| The model parameters used are the following: | ||
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| | Mathematical variable | C++ variable name | Description | | ||
| |---------------------------- | --------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | ||
| | $\phi$ | `ContactPatterns` | Average number of contacts of a person per day. | | ||
| | $k$ | `Seasonality` | The influence of the seasons is taken into account with the seasonality parameter. | | ||
| | $\rho$ | `TransmissionProbabilityOnContact` | Transmission risk for people located in the Susceptible compartment. | | ||
| | $\xi_{I_{NS}}$ | `RelativeTransmissionNoSymptoms` | Proportion infected people with no symptoms who are not isolated. | | ||
| | $\xi_{I_{Sy}}$ | `RiskOfInfectionFromSymptomatic` | Proportion of infected persons with symptoms who are not isolated. | | ||
| | $N$ | `m_N` | Total population. | | ||
| | $D$ | Entry of `m_populations` | Number of dead people. | | ||
| | $\mu_{z_1}^{z_2}$ | `TransitionProbabilities` | Probability of transitioning from compartment $z_1$ to compartment $z_2$. | | ||
| | $\gamma_{z_1}^{z_2}(\tau)$ | `TransitionDistributions` | Expected proportion of people who are still in compartment $z_1$ $\tau$ days after entering this compartment and who will move to compartment $z_2$ later in the course of the disease. | | ||
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| The simulation runs in discrete time steps using a non-standard numerical scheme. This approach is based on the paper ["A non-standard numerical scheme for an age-of infection epidemic model" by Messina et al., Journal of Computational Dynamics, 2022](https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2021029). | ||
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| ## Examples | ||
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| An example can be found at: | ||
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| - examples/ide_secir.cpp | ||
| - [IDE minimal example](../../examples/ide_secir.cpp) | ||
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| ## Initialization | ||
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| - The file [parameters_io](parameters_io.h) provides functionality to compute initial data for the IDE-SECIR model based on real data. An example for this initialization method can be found at [IDE initialization example](../../examples/ide_initialization.cpp). | ||
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| - There are various options for initializing a fictional scenario. Regardless of the approach, you must provide a history of values for the transitions and additional information to compute the initial distribution of the population in the compartments. This information must be of the following type: | ||
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| - You can state the number of total confirmed cases `total_confirmed_cases` at time $t_0$. The number of recovered people is set accordingly and the remaining values are derived in the model before starting the simulation. | ||
| - You can set the number of people in the `Susceptible` compartment at time $t_0$ via `m_populations`. Initial values of the other compartments are derived in the model before starting the simulation. | ||
| - You can set the number of people in the `Recovered` compartment at time $t_0$ via `m_populations`. Initial values of the other compartments are derived in the model before starting the simulation. | ||
| - If none of the above is used, the force of infection formula and the values for the initial transitions are used consistently with the numerical scheme proposed in [Messina et al (2022)](https://doi.org/10.3934/jcd.2021029) to set the `Susceptible`s. | ||
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